What RFK Jr. Got Wrong & A Debate Challenge
RJK Jr. recently went on the the Joe Rogan Experience where he gave authoritative opinions on topics ranging from vaccines to cell phones. While many things RJK Jr. said had elements of truth, many things he said were false and misleading.
Two of the claims that RFK Jr. made seemed so off to me that I did my own research. I see overwhelming evidence that he is wrong and is actively misleading the public.
Ivermectin and the Emergency Use Authorization Act
At about 2 hours into the podcast Joe and RJK Jr. talk about Joe’s use of Ivermectin. While I agree that the media’s portrayal of the drug as horse dewormer was ridiculous, what RFK Jr. claimed next was equally ridiculous: (paraphrasing) the establishment had to discredit ivermectin because it would have interfered with the emergency use authorization of the vaccines.
RFK JR’s claim comes from a stipulation in the Emergency Use Authorization “when certain criteria are met, including there are no adequate, approved, and available alternatives”.
This is a great writeup of all the ways in which RFK Jr’s interpretation is false, including things like:
Remdesivir was approved for COVID 2 months before the vaccines were; i.e. the exact case of “an approved treatment precludes the vaccine” is shown to not be true
Multiple vaccines were approved
The FDA also just said it’s not the case it would have blocked vaccines
Finally, just think about it. Emergency Use Authorization is just something written by people - it can be changed if needed. Do you really think the world wouldn’t modify the rules to save the world from a pandemic if we had a cure? Empirically and logically, the claim makes no sense.
RFK Jr’s claim is demonstrably false and he is stirring conspiracy theories with absolutely no evidence.
On Vaccine Efficacy
About 35 minutes into the show RFK Jr. starts to rebut the idea that vaccines save lives.
Joe says: “They’ve prevented disease that would have killed untold numbers of children.”
RFK Jr. says: “Those arguments have been severely challenged.'“
RFK Jr. goes on to reference two studies - the Guyer study and McKinlay
About the Guyer study, RFK Jr. says the drop in 20th century infectious mortality death has almost nothing to do with vaccines. If you read the study, it says: “Vaccination, while first used in the 18th century, became more widely implemented in the middle part of the century. Vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis became available during the late 1920s but only widely used in routine pediatric practice after World War II. Thus vaccination does not account for the impressive declines in mortality seen in the first half of the century. The reductions in vaccine-preventable diseases, however, are impressive.In the early 1920s, diphtheria accounted for about 175 000 cases annually and pertussis for nearly 150 000 cases; measles accounted for about half a million annual cases before the introduction of vaccine in the 1960s. Deaths from these diseases have been virtually eliminated, as have deaths from Haemophilus influenzae, tetanus, and poliomyelitis.”
The McKinlay study has similar results.
What does this mean?
First of all, it means that nutrition and hygiene did save a huge amount of children’s lives in the 20th century. In fact, comparing nearly anything to the numbers of children saved by nutrition and hygiene will make the compared thing look small. Almost any medical treatment we do for children these days cannot compare to the impact of 20th century nutrition and hygiene improvements on the population - that doesn’t mean that the entire field of modern pediatric medicine isn’t saving lives. This argument is like saying The Great Pyramid is small because the Sun is big.
Second, the point of Joe’s statement was that vaccines provide value. Guyer says they do “The reductions in vaccine-preventable diseases, however, are impressive.” Furthermore, even a small total percentage of life-saving medicine in the 20th century - for example the 3.5% medical intervention rate guessed by McKinlay - is saving a huge number of of lives; millions of lives. Is RFK Jr. saying millions of lives saved isn’t enough to say vaccines are useful?
Third, both these studies start after smallpox began getting vaccinated for. Vaccines eradicated smallpox. That alone should shut down RFK Jr’s exercise in statistics claiming vaccines aren’t useful.
Finally, on vaccine efficacy in general - they eradicated polio; Measles was declared eliminated (absence of continuous disease transmission for greater than 12 months) from the United States in 2000. There is no question that many vaccines have provided a value to humanity that is massive and world-changing, not some curious rounding error that RFK Jr. would make you believe by using 20th century statistical gerrymandering.
Debate Me
RFK Jr. has since wanted to debate vaccine experts. They have declined, not wanting to give credibility to RFK Jr’s position. To RFK Jr, a challenge: debate me. In the same way you criticize the experts for not debating you, I think you won’t debate down either. I’m just a guy from New Jersey with an internet connection, and I’m pretty sure I’d be able to show people how you are misleading the public.
Other References
I found https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1670591110786465796 to be a pretty good thread that outlines some fast findings on false statements in the podcast.